5 Good Opportunities to Steal

1. Advantage Counts 0-1, 1-2, 0-2

2. After a Hard Foul Ball on a FB
3. After a Bad Swing on a CB
4. After a Pitcher Shakes Off
5. After a Bad Pickoff Attempt

1. Advantage Counts 0-1, 1-2, 0-2

Most pitchers are taught to put hitters away with off-speed pitches when ahead in counts.
1-2 is a great count to steal, historically the count with the highest % chance of spin.
0-2 is a little more risky as some pitchers throw FBs up.

2. After a Hard Foul Ball on a FB

A pitcher is most likely to throw an off-speed pitch after a hitter fouls off a FB, especially if well struck.
If the hitter is all over the velo, be ready to run.

3. After a Bad Swing on a CB

Pitchers will often double up CBs if the hitter looked uncomfortable, or took a really bad swing at it.
One hitter's struggles can be a good baserunner's gift.

4. After a Pitcher Shakes Off

This applies more to HS players, but pitchers will often fall into patterns of shaking to off-speed.
Watch the game and note what pitch gets thrown most often after a shake. If it's 75% CBs its a worthwhile risk to go for it next time.

5. After a Bad Pickoff Attempt

If the pitcher almost throws the ball away on a pickoff attempt, he will almost never pickoff on the next pitch. His coach won't call it, & the pitcher won't do it. Bad pickoff throws are Green Lights to good runners.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Baserunning is an imperfect science. But trying to steal on a pitch that gives you the best chance of being safe is always a good idea.

Be tactical, observe what is going on around you, & make aggressive decisions.

By: Mike Castellani